Wagner mercenaries were on Thursday reported to be trying to head back into Russia after threatening retaliation over the suspected killing of their leader Yevgeny Prigozhin in a plane crash on the orders of Vladimir Putin. “The convoys are likely heading towards the border with Russia,” the centre said. “There’s a lot talk right now about what the Wagner Group will do,” he said.
Apparently he did try it, several times, after the invasion started.
I suspect that in Putin’s mind, before Zelenskyy revealled himself as a real leader (“I don’t need a lift, I need ammo”), he was nothing more than a week “western-style politician” and comediant who would easilly fold.
It’s very easy with hindsight to say he should’ve tried to take him out beforehand but at the time he (or, lets be honest, any of us, even the US President) really didn’t know Zelenskyy’s character: for all he knew back then, killing Zelenskyy might’ve just be taking out a weaker man and end up with a stronger man leading the Ukranian Government only by then Putin’s hand would’ve been revealed.
Sure, it makes sense now, but back then knowing what he knew then, for Putin it clearly did not.
Again, it’s like failure to do even the most basic research. He had all sorts of plants in Ukraine in before all this started, it would have been relatively easy to have spies to a character assessment. Just like I really don’t understand why he wouldn’t have done an equipment specification before moving all this equipment with dry rot and other failures. He had to have known that the everyone was skimming at best, and straight out stealing at worst.
Considering that even the US’ intelligence failed to spot Zelenskyy’s character as a war leader, I think we should be wary of proclaiming that the russian’s could’ve find it out with “the most basic research”…
In fact people often don’t really know if they’ll rise to the occasion in such a life and death situation themselves until faced with it.
As I said, it’s easy to look at it now and think “it was obvious”, but that’s due to hindsight.