Wagner mercenaries were on Thursday reported to be trying to head back into Russia after threatening retaliation over the suspected killing of their leader Yevgeny Prigozhin in a plane crash on the orders of Vladimir Putin. “The convoys are likely heading towards the border with Russia,” the centre said. “There’s a lot talk right now about what the Wagner Group will do,” he said.
  • @[email protected]English
    3•1 year ago

    nukes were never on the table. putin’s goal number one is holding power in russia, and it’s no fun when it’s all shiny glass or when you’re dead. the reason behind invasion? believe it or not, also holding more power within russia. over two decades of putin’s presidency, he carefully molded his electoral base to consist of nationalists, and every time he invaded another country his ratings went up (2008, georgia, 2014, donbas, 2022, ukraine, at least initially) because even if your elections are faked, you need it to be believable and you need to have some real support. that’s even how he got presidency in the first place, by initiating second chechen war

    in this situation, what options putin does have?

    • he can’t sue for peace right now, or deescalate in a big way, because his electoral base will see this as a sign of weakness and move on to another rabid nationalist
    • he can’t escalate, because he has little to escalate with, in terms of (modern) equipment and (mobilized) manpower. mobilization is an unacceptable political risk, additionally, he runs a risk of corresponding western escalation, with west is much more capable of, and would consist of equipment only, which is much less politically risky
    • he can’t use nukes, because there’s already nuclear bunker buster with his name somewhere in the midwest and he probably wants it to stay there

    the only survivable option for putin seems to keep intensity at this level or lower, try to limit western aid, and try to slowly grind through to whatever propaganda objective he wants. remember all these russian threats, that if west provides whatever equipment, they will use nuukes! it seems that everyone called bluff on this one, multiple times. conversely, the more favourable scenario for ukraine is escalation. more info here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fWKGYnO0Jf4 https://yt.artemislena.eu/watch?v=fWKGYnO0Jf4